STATISTICAL MODELING AND PROJECTIONS OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BULGARIAN BLACK SEA COAST, BASED ON THE EXAMPLE OF THREE REPRESENTATIVE WEATHER STATIONS
Problems of Geography, 2016, Vol.3-4, DOI: https://doi.org/10.35101/PRG-2016.3-4.2
A statistical modeling of precipitation at three representative stations located on the Black Sea coast was made in this study. Precipitation data for stations Constanta, Varna and Burgas were used. Statistical models were based on multiple linear regression. Data from 43 global climate models, according to historical period of the study (1950-2005) and the period 2006-2099 were used for constructing statistical models. The data source for global climate models was project CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5). Projections based on scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 were made for the following future periods: 2006-2036, 2037-2067 and 2068-2099. The projections based on scenarios indicate that mean monthly precipitation sums will increase mainly in January, September and October at all three stations. A decrease of precipitation is expected mainly in April, June and November. Mean annual precipitation sums according to scenario RCP 2.6 is expected to decrease slightly until the middle of the XXI century, then to increase slightly towards the end of the XXI century. A small decrease of mean annual precipitation is expected according to the scenario RCP4.5 with about 8% (Constanta) and 7% (Burgas) compared to the period 2006-2015. A stable decrease of annual precipitation sums is expected according to scenarios RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5, with about 13-25% towards the end of the century, compared to the period 2006-2015.
statistical modeling, global climate models, projections, precipitation, Bulgarian Black sea coast
Author: Iliya Trifonov
Affiliation: National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Geography – BAS, str. Acad. G. Bonchev, bl. 3, Sofia 1113, Bulgaria
How to cite:
Trifonov, I. (2016). СТАТИСТИЧЕСКО МОДЕЛИРАНЕ И ПРОГНОЗИРАНЕ НА ВАЛЕЖИТЕ НА ПРИМЕРА НА ТРИ ПРЕДСТАВИТЕЛНИ МЕТЕОРОЛОГИЧНИ СТАНЦИИ. Problems of Geography, 2016, Vol.3-4, p. 27-46. https://doi.org/10.35101/PRG-2016.3-4.2