Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to study indices of the regional climate change, its impact on environment and possible future effects. The results were obtained by analysing data of long-term observations of climate indices at the Melitopol meteostation and hydrometeostations of Henichesk, Botievo, Berdiansk. Among climate indices, dynamics of the average annual, maximum and minimum air temperatures, sum of active temperatures above +15°C, precipitation amount and its patterns, changes in wind speed, and changes in wind circulation processes are analyzed. It is established that the increase in the average annual air temperature is accelerating: in the second half of the 20th century the increase constituted 0.8 ºС, and from the beginning of the 21st century, the growth rate is estimated as 1.95 ºС for 100 years. In the period from 1951 to 2014, an increasing trend of the average annual air temperature at the Melitopol meteorological station was 1.7 °C, thus reaching the value of +11.5 °C. Most of the increase was observed in the period since 1990. The last two decades were the hottest in the history of climate observations. The rise of the average annual air temperature up to 12.3-12.5 °С by 2050 is predicted. An analysis of long-term values of the sum of positive temperatures above +15°C shows an increase of 40 ºС per year, with a rapid growth of this index in 2008-2012 – to 80 ºС per year. During 2005-2017, compared with the period before 2005, the minimum and maximum air temperatures at the Melitopol meteorological station increased: the minimum temperature ranged from -33 ºС to -26.3 ºС (23.01.2006), and the maximum was from +40 ºС to +41 ºС (07.08.2010). A gradual increase in the amount of precipitation occurs against rising extremes of their patterns between years. According to the trend line, the increase in the amount of precipitation to 550-560 mm is predicted by 2050, thus being 100 mm higher than the long-term climate norm for Melitopol (460 mm). Redistribution of the precipitation amount towards the cold season is associated with changes in wind circulation processes over the territory with a gradual increase in the western component of the flow. The warm season is becoming hotter and drier. Tendencies to a significant decrease in wind speed are revealed. Compiled wind roses indicate further rearrangement of atmospheric circulation over south-eastern Ukraine towards the western component. An analysis of possible effects of climate change and their high intensity on the soil and vegetation cover, landscapes and agrarian sphere of human activity is given.