ASSESSMENT OF THE FUTURE CLIMATE OVER SOUTHEAST EUROPE BASED ON ENSEMBLE OF CLIMATE INDICES – PART TWO: RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Proceeding of 1st International Conference on Environmental Protection and Disaster RISKs, 2020, DOI: https://doi.org/10.48365/ENVR-2020.1.14
Hristo Chervenkov, Vladimir Ivanov, Georgi Gadzhev, Kostadin Ganev
Abstract:
Nowadays there is a strong degree of agreement that the climate change is the defining challenge of our time. The analysis based on climate indices is probably the most widely used non-parametric approach for quantification of extreme climate events. This study which consist of two parts, is dedicated on the assessment of the spatial patterns and the temporal evolution of 6 temperature-based and 3-precipitation based indices in projected future climate over south-east Europe up to the end of the century. The annual means of the daily mean and extreme temperatures are also analysed in consistent manner. The indices are computed from the bias-corrected output of 5 CMIP5 global models, forced with all 4 RCP emission scenarios. The multi model ensemble medians of the temperature-based indices shows considerable warming which is consistent with the increase of the mean temperatures and is statistically significant in most cases. The revealed changes of the precipitation-based indices are more complex when compared with temperature changes.
Keywords:
Climate Indices, CMIP5 Ensemble, RCPs, Future Climate, Southeast Europe
Acknowledgements:
The authors thank the anonymous reviewers for their insightful suggestions. Hence this study is entirely based on free available data and software, the authors would like to express their deep gratitude to the primary CMIP5 model output vendors as well as all other organizations and institutions (MPI-M, UNI-DATA, Copernicus Data Store), which provides free of charge software and data. Without their innovative data services and tools this work would be not possible.
This work has been carried out in the framework of the National Science Program “Environmental Protection and Reduction of Risks of Adverse Events and Natural Disasters”, approved by the Resolution of the Council of Ministers № 577/17.08.2018 and supported by the Ministry of Education and Science (MES) of Bulgaria (Agreement № Д01-322/18.12.2019).
This work has been accomplished with the financial support by the Grant No BG05M2OP001-1.001-0003, financed by the Science and Education for Smart Growth Operational Program (2014-2020) and co-financed by the European Union through the European structural and Investment funds.
Author information:
Author: Hristo Chervenkov
http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7658-3041
E-mail: hristo.tchervenkov@meteo.bg
Affiliation: National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology
Author: Vladimir Ivanov
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9768-1049
E-mail: vivanov@geophys.bas.bg
Affiliation: National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Geography – BAS, str. Acad. G. Bonchev, bl. 3, Sofia 1113, Bulgaria
Author: Georgi Gadzhev
http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6159-3554
E-mail: ggadzhev@geophys.bas.bg
Affiliation: National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Geography – BAS, str. Acad. G. Bonchev, bl. 3, Sofia 1113, Bulgaria
Author: Kostadin Ganev
E-mail: kganev@geophys.bas.bg
Affiliation: National Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Geography – BAS, str. Acad. G. Bonchev, bl. 3, Sofia 1113, Bulgaria
How to cite:
Chervenkov, H., Ivanov, V., Gadzhev, G., & Ganev, K. (2020). Assessment of the Future Climate over Southeast Europe Based on CMIP5 Ensemble of Climate Indices – Part Two: Results and Discussion. Proceeding of 1st International Conference on Environmental Protection and Disaster RISKs, 2020, p. 157-169. https://doi.org/10.48365/ENVR-2020.1.14