Abstract:
We present the results of the numerical hindcast of the storm surges affecting the Bulgarian Black Sea coast during the period 1979-2020, using atmospheric data from the ERA5 reanalysis. The aim of the study is to evaluate the changes in the surge intensity and frequency during the period. The highest identified surges in the hindcast output are the surges of February 1979, January 1981 and February 2012- the surge of 2012 is the highest, while the surge of 1979 was found to be the longest and the most energetic event. We found no statistically significant inter annual change in the number, total duration and the introduced index characterizing the total energy of the surges above 60cm or 80cm was found. The total annual number of events above 40cm is with increasing trend which is statistically significant, but the total duration of events above 40cm does not show statistically significant trend- we observe more frequent but shorter events in the range 40-60cm during the last decade.