Abstract:
Exposure means people, property, systems, or other elements present in hazard zones that are thereby subject to potential losses. Present research analyses the human exposure at one of the most dangerous earthquake zones in Bulgaria-Blagoevgrad region as one of the main parameters of the seismic risk. Seismic hazard is modelled using GIS and overlaid with one square kilometre grid of population distribution in order to determine the population exposure. We define a parameter called “population exposure index” (PEI) which has five classes: Minor, Low, Moderate, High and Major. As was expected, the seismic hazard levels of Blagoevgrad region are in the upper part of the classification scale. The Krupnik- Kresna area is fully covered with the highest 5th level and the remaining part falls within the interval limits of level 4. The total population in the Blagoevgrad region (NUTS II) is around 138 000 people. Results show that more than 45 000 people are exposed to the highest level of seismic hazard. More than 50 settlements (towns and villages) are classified with Major (5) PEI.