INTRINSIC OSCILLATIONS OF RIVER STREAMFLOWS DETERMINED BY ARIST METHOD
Proceeding of 1st International Conference on Environmental Protection and Disaster RISKs, 2020, DOI: https://doi.org/10.48365/ENVR-2020.1.48
The river streamflows analyses can be successfully used in water resource planning and management, depending on the needs of the wide range users. It is possible to use these applications in several general directions: as informal, qualitative guidance for water managers, stakeholders and decision makers and prediction about long-term drought variability; for quantitative assessments of longterm hydrologic variability and assessment the severity and duration of drought cycles; as direct inputs into hydrologic models of a water system, etc. The longterm oscillations of the river streamflows are influenced mainly by the solar activity and climate interaction, whose variations often consist of synchronous cycles. The intrinsic oscillations of Danube and Don streamflows are determined by the recently created autoregressive method ARIST. These oscillations are compared with the intrinsic oscillations of solar and climate indices and mean Black Sea level variations. Conclusions about the use of intrinsic oscillations in floods or drought prediction are made.
river streamflow; ARIST; climate; mean sea level
This work has been carried out in the framework of the National Science Program „Environmental Protection and Reduction of Risks of Adverse Events and Natural Disasters“, approved by the Resolution of the Council of Ministers №577/17.08.2018 and supported by the Ministry of Education and Science (MES) of Bulgaria (Agreement № Д01-322/18.12.2019).
Author: Yavor Chapanov
Affiliation: Climate, Atmosphere and Water Research Institute – BAS
How to cite:
Chapanov, Y. (2020). Intrinsic Oscillations of River Stream Flows Determined by ARIST Method. Proceeding of 1st International Conference on Environmental Protection and Disaster RISKs, 2020, p. 525-536. https://doi.org/10.48365/ENVR-2020.1.48